Single poll

INSA poll of 5 February 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
2 to 5 Feb 2024
Respondents
2,004
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD20.5%+0.5
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne12.5%-0.5
  • BSW7.5%+0.5
  • FDP4.5%+0.5
  • Linke3.5%-0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others3.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Feb 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.5%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 Feb 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Feb 2024, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +1.7average 5.8
  • Grüne -0.8average 13.3
  • FDP -0.6average 5.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
  • SPD -0.2average 15.2
  • Linke -0.2average 3.7
  • Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
  • AfD -0.1average 20.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 221 seatsAfD: 151 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 92 seatsBSW: 55 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU221
  • AfD151
  • SPD111
  • Grüne92
  • BSW55
  • CDU/CSU + AfD372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW368 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW317 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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