INSA poll of 3 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Jan 2024 to 2 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 1,202
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- AfD20.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+0.5
- Grüne13.0%+0.5
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%+0.5
- Freie Wähler3.0%+0.5
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jan 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 29 Jan 2024 to 2 Feb 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jan 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.2average 5.8
- FDP -1.1average 5.1
- AfD -0.6average 20.6
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
- Grüne -0.3average 13.3
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- SPD -0.2average 15.2
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU223
- AfD148
- SPD111
- Grüne96
- BSW52
- CDU/CSU + AfD371 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne355 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.