INSA poll of 29 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 29 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD21.0%±0
- SPD14.5%+0.5
- Grüne12.5%-0.5
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 26 to 29 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 29 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.4average 5.6
- Grüne -0.8average 13.3
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
- Linke -0.5average 4.0
- Freie Wähler -0.4average 2.9
- AfD -0.3average 21.3
- FDP -0.3average 5.3
- SPD -0.2average 14.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU210
- AfD147
- SPD102
- Grüne87
- BSW49
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne399 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW346 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.