INSA poll of 20 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 19 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,203
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- SPD13.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- BSW7.0%
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others4.0%-4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jan 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 15 to 19 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 3.0 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +3.0average 4.0
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 31.6
- SPD -1.1average 14.1
- Linke -0.9average 3.9
- Grüne -0.4average 13.4
- AfD -0.2average 22.2
- FDP +0.1average 4.9
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU210
- AfD154
- SPD91
- Grüne91
- BSW49
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne392 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.