INSA poll of 9 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 8 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,008
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD23.0%±0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Jan 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 5 to 8 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- SPD +1.4average 14.6
- AfD +1.2average 21.8
- CDU/CSU +0.4average 31.6
- Linke +0.2average 3.8
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU229
- AfD165
- SPD114
- Grüne86
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD394 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD343 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.