Single poll

INSA poll of 7 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
2 to 5 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,204
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • AfD23.0%+0.5
  • SPD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne12.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jan 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,204 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.7average 13.7
  • SPD +1.2average 14.8
  • AfD +0.9average 22.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 31.3
  • FDP -0.2average 5.2
  • Linke +0.2average 3.8
  • Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 224 seatsAfD: 167 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU224
  • AfD167
  • SPD116
  • Grüne87
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD391 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.