INSA poll of 3 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD22.5%-0.5
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Dec 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 22.5%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 29 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Dec 2023, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -0.8average 13.8
- CDU/CSU +0.6average 31.4
- AfD +0.5average 22.0
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- SPD +0.2average 14.8
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU230
- AfD162
- SPD108
- Grüne94
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD392 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne324 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.