INSA poll of 18 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 18 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.5%-0.5
- AfD23.0%±0
- SPD15.5%+0.5
- Grüne12.5%+0.5
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others6.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 15 to 18 Dec 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.6average 14.1
- AfD +1.2average 21.8
- SPD +0.7average 14.8
- CDU/CSU +0.5average 31.0
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 3.0
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU227
- AfD165
- SPD112
- Grüne90
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD392 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne317 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.