INSA poll of 16 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 15 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 1,202
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+2.0
- AfD23.0%+0.5
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.0%-0.5
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Dec 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 Dec 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.1average 14.1
- AfD +1.2average 21.8
- CDU/CSU +1.0average 31.0
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 3.0
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- SPD +0.2average 14.8
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU232
- AfD166
- SPD109
- Grüne87
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD398 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.