Single poll

INSA poll of 28 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
23 to 27 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,216
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+2.5
  • AfD21.0%-1.0
  • SPD16.0%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%+0.5
  • Linke4.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Oct 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,216 people were surveyed from 23 to 27 Oct 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU gains 2.5 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.7average 29.3
  • Grüne -1.2average 14.2
  • FDP +0.6average 5.4
  • SPD +0.4average 15.6
  • Linke -0.4average 4.4
  • AfD -0.3average 21.3
  • Freie Wähler -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 225 seatsAfD: 152 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsFDP: 43 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU225
  • AfD152
  • SPD116
  • Grüne94
  • FDP43
  • CDU/CSU + AfD377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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