INSA poll of 24 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 23 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 2,004
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.5%-0.5
- AfD22.0%±0
- SPD16.5%+0.5
- Grüne13.0%±0
- FDP5.5%+0.5
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.5%-0.5
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Oct 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.5%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 20 to 23 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Oct 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.3average 14.3
- SPD +0.6average 15.9
- Linke +0.5average 4.5
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 3.0
- AfD +0.4average 21.6
- FDP -0.2average 5.7
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 28.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU198
- AfD153
- SPD115
- Grüne91
- FDP38
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne404 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP327 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.