INSA poll of 21 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 20 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,202
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+1.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- SPD16.0%-0.5
- Grüne13.0%±0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%+0.5
- Freie Wähler4.0%±0
- Others6.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Oct 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 16 to 20 Oct 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.3average 14.3
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 3.0
- FDP -0.6average 5.6
- Linke +0.5average 4.5
- AfD +0.4average 21.6
- CDU/CSU +0.3average 28.7
- SPD +0.1average 15.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU203
- AfD154
- SPD112
- Grüne91
- FDP35
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne406 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.