INSA poll of 10 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 9 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 2,001
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.0%±0
- AfD22.5%+0.5
- SPD17.0%±0
- Grüne13.5%-0.5
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Oct 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 22.5%. 2,001 people were surveyed from 6 to 9 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Oct 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.2average 14.7
- AfD +1.1average 21.4
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 2.3
- FDP -0.4average 6.4
- Linke +0.4average 4.6
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 27.1
- SPD +0.1average 16.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU187
- AfD156
- SPD118
- Grüne93
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne398 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.