Single poll

INSA poll of 7 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
2 to 6 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,201
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+0.5
  • AfD22.0%±0
  • SPD17.0%-1.0
  • Grüne14.0%+0.5
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%+0.5
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Oct 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 2 to 6 Oct 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Oct 2023, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -0.7average 14.7
  • Freie Wähler +0.7average 2.3
  • AfD +0.6average 21.4
  • Linke +0.4average 4.6
  • FDP -0.3average 6.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.1average 27.1
  • SPD +0.1average 16.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 187 seatsAfD: 152 seatsSPD: 118 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 41 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU187
  • AfD152
  • SPD118
  • Grüne97
  • FDP41
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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