INSA poll of 2 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 2,010
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%+0.5
- AfD22.0%±0
- SPD18.0%±0
- Grüne13.5%-0.5
- FDP7.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.5%-0.5
- Others5.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 29 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Sep 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +1.1average 16.9
- Grüne -1.1average 14.6
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 27.2
- FDP +0.7average 6.3
- AfD +0.6average 21.4
- Linke +0.4average 4.6
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU182
- AfD151
- SPD123
- Grüne92
- FDP48
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.