INSA poll of 30 September 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 25 to 29 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,206
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
- AfD22.0%+0.5
- SPD18.0%+0.5
- Grüne14.0%+0.5
- FDP7.0%+0.5
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,206 people were surveyed from 25 to 29 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +1.2average 16.8
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 27.1
- Freie Wähler +0.7average 2.3
- Grüne -0.6average 14.6
- FDP +0.6average 6.4
- AfD +0.4average 21.6
- Linke +0.4average 4.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU178
- AfD151
- SPD123
- Grüne96
- FDP48
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.