INSA poll of 23 September 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 18 to 22 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,203
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU27.0%+0.5
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%-0.5
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%-0.5
- Others6.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 18 to 22 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Sep 2023, AfD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 2.0
- FDP -0.6average 6.6
- AfD +0.4average 21.6
- Grüne -0.4average 14.4
- Linke +0.4average 4.6
- CDU/CSU -0.2average 27.2
- SPD -0.2average 17.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU187
- AfD152
- SPD118
- Grüne97
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.