INSA poll of 19 September 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 18 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 2,008
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%-0.5
- AfD21.0%±0
- SPD17.0%±0
- Grüne14.5%-0.5
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.5%+0.5
- Others6.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 15 to 18 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Sep 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Freie Wähler 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +1.5average 2.0
- FDP -0.7average 6.7
- AfD -0.6average 21.6
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 27.0
- Linke +0.3average 4.7
- SPD -0.2average 17.2
- Grüne +0.2average 14.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU186
- AfD147
- SPD119
- Grüne101
- FDP42
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne406 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.