Single poll

INSA poll of 16 September 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
11 to 15 Sep 2023
Respondents
1,204
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+0.5
  • AfD21.0%-1.0
  • SPD17.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%+1.0
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%
  • Others6.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Sep 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,204 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Sep 2023, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +1.0average 2.0
  • FDP -0.9average 6.9
  • Grüne +0.7average 14.3
  • SPD -0.5average 17.5
  • Linke +0.3average 4.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
  • AfD -0.1average 21.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 187 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 118 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsFDP: 41 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU187
  • AfD145
  • SPD118
  • Grüne104
  • FDP41
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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