Single poll

INSA poll of 17 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
14 to 17 Jul 2023
Respondents
2,004
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • AfD20.5%+0.5
  • SPD18.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others8.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jul 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 20.5%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 14 to 17 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jul 2023, no party moves by more than one point.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -0.7average 14.7
  • AfD +0.5average 20.0
  • SPD -0.4average 18.4
  • Linke +0.3average 4.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 186 seatsAfD: 141 seatsSPD: 124 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU186
  • AfD141
  • SPD124
  • Grüne97
  • FDP48
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD327 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne407 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke317 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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