Single poll

INSA poll of 16 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
10 to 14 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,184
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+1.0
  • AfD20.0%-0.5
  • SPD18.0%-1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others9.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Jul 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,184 people were surveyed from 10 to 14 Jul 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Jul 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -0.7average 14.7
  • SPD -0.4average 18.4
  • Linke +0.3average 4.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
  • AfD ±0average 20.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 187 seatsAfD: 138 seatsSPD: 125 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU187
  • AfD138
  • SPD125
  • Grüne97
  • FDP48
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP360 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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