Single poll

INSA poll of 10 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
7 to 10 Jul 2023
Respondents
2,008
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • AfD20.5%+0.5
  • SPD19.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others8.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jul 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 20.5%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 7 to 10 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jul 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.3average 27.3
  • AfD +0.9average 19.6
  • Grüne -0.7average 14.7
  • SPD +0.4average 18.6
  • FDP +0.3average 6.7
  • Linke +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 179 seatsAfD: 141 seatsSPD: 131 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU179
  • AfD141
  • SPD131
  • Grüne97
  • FDP48
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD320 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne407 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP324 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP320 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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