INSA poll of 3 July 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 2,897
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU25.5%-0.5
- AfD21.0%+1.0
- SPD19.0%±0
- Grüne14.5%+0.5
- FDP6.5%-0.5
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others8.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jul 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.5%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 2,897 people were surveyed from 30 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jul 2023, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower and AfD 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.0average 27.5
- AfD +1.8average 19.2
- SPD +0.3average 18.7
- Grüne -0.3average 14.8
- FDP -0.2average 6.7
- Linke +0.2average 4.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU175
- AfD145
- SPD131
- Grüne100
- FDP45
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD320 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne406 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne376 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP321 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP320 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.