Single poll

INSA poll of 1 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
26 to 30 Jun 2023
Respondents
1,401
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-0.5
  • AfD20.0%-0.5
  • SPD19.0%-0.5
  • Grüne14.0%+0.5
  • FDP7.0%+0.5
  • Linke5.0%+0.5
  • Others9.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Jun 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,401 people were surveyed from 26 to 30 Jun 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Jun 2023, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.5average 27.5
  • AfD +0.8average 19.2
  • Grüne -0.8average 14.8
  • SPD +0.3average 18.7
  • FDP +0.3average 6.7
  • Linke +0.2average 4.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 180 seatsAfD: 138 seatsSPD: 132 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU180
  • AfD138
  • SPD132
  • Grüne97
  • FDP48
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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