Single poll

INSA poll of 15 May 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 15 May 2023
Respondents
2,010
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU28.0%±0
  • SPD20.0%±0
  • AfD16.5%+0.5
  • Grüne14.5%-0.5
  • FDP8.5%-0.5
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Others7.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 May 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 May 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 May 2023, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 May 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.5average 29.5
  • Grüne -1.4average 15.9
  • SPD +1.3average 18.7
  • FDP +1.2average 7.3
  • AfD +0.7average 15.8
  • Linke +0.3average 4.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 191 seatsSPD: 136 seatsAfD: 112 seatsGrüne: 99 seatsFDP: 58 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU191
  • SPD136
  • AfD112
  • Grüne99
  • FDP58
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + SPD327 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne402 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP348 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke324 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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