INSA poll of 16 January 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 16 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.0%+1.0
- SPD21.0%+1.0
- Grüne16.5%-0.5
- AfD15.0%±0
- FDP7.5%-0.5
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others7.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Jan 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Jan 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.1 points lower and SPD 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.1average 18.6
- SPD +1.6average 19.4
- AfD +0.7average 14.3
- FDP +0.4average 7.1
- CDU/CSU +0.1average 27.9
- Linke +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU189
- SPD142
- Grüne112
- AfD102
- FDP51
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD403 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.