INSA poll of 2 January 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Dec 2022 to 2 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 2,010
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.0%+1.0
- SPD20.0%±0
- Grüne17.5%-0.5
- AfD15.0%±0
- FDP7.5%+0.5
- Linke4.5%-0.5
- Others8.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 31 Dec 2022.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 29 Dec 2022 to 2 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 31 Dec 2022, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.3average 18.8
- AfD +1.3average 13.7
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 28.2
- FDP +0.6average 6.9
- SPD +0.4average 19.6
- Linke -0.3average 4.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU195
- SPD145
- Grüne127
- AfD109
- FDP54
- CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP358 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.