Single poll

INSA poll of 31 December 2022 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
27 to 29 Dec 2022
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • SPD20.0%-1.0
  • Grüne18.0%+1.0
  • AfD15.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others9.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Dec 2022.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 27 to 29 Dec 2022, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Dec 2022, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Dec 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.2average 28.2
  • AfD +1.3average 13.7
  • Grüne -0.8average 18.8
  • SPD +0.4average 19.6
  • Linke +0.2average 4.8
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 180 seatsSPD: 138 seatsGrüne: 125 seatsAfD: 104 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU180
  • SPD138
  • Grüne125
  • AfD104
  • FDP48
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + SPD318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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