INSA poll of 31 December 2022 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 27 to 29 Dec 2022
- Respondents
- 1,205
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
- SPD20.0%-1.0
- Grüne18.0%+1.0
- AfD15.0%+1.0
- FDP7.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Dec 2022.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 27 to 29 Dec 2022, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 Dec 2022, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Dec 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.2average 28.2
- AfD +1.3average 13.7
- Grüne -0.8average 18.8
- SPD +0.4average 19.6
- Linke +0.2average 4.8
- FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU180
- SPD138
- Grüne125
- AfD104
- FDP48
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + SPD318 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.