INSA poll of 4 October 2022 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Sep 2022 to 4 Oct 2022
- Respondents
- 2,008
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.5%-0.5
- SPD19.0%±0
- Grüne18.5%+0.5
- AfD15.0%±0
- FDP8.0%±0
- Linke5.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Oct 2022.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 29 Sep 2022 to 4 Oct 2022, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Oct 2022, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.9 points lower and AfD 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.9average 20.4
- AfD +1.8average 13.2
- FDP +0.9average 7.1
- SPD +0.4average 18.6
- Linke +0.3average 5.2
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 27.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU185
- SPD128
- Grüne125
- AfD101
- FDP54
- Linke37
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne438 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD414 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD411 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP364 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke323 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.