Single poll

INSA poll of 16 October 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
11 to 15 Oct 2021
Respondents
1,195
Method
Telefon & Online
  • SPD28.0%-0.5
  • CDU/CSU19.0%-0.5
  • Grüne16.0%±0
  • FDP13.0%-1.5
  • AfD11.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Others9.0%+2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Oct 2021.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 19.0%. 1,195 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 Oct 2021, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Oct 2021, FDP loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.4 points lower and SPD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.4average 21.4
  • SPD +2.0average 26.0
  • Linke -2.0average 6.0
  • FDP +0.6average 12.4
  • Grüne +0.5average 15.5
  • AfD +0.3average 10.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 203 seatsCDU/CSU: 137 seatsGrüne: 116 seatsFDP: 94 seatsAfD: 80 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD203
  • CDU/CSU137
  • Grüne116
  • FDP94
  • AfD80
  • SPD + CDU/CSU340 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne319 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD333 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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