Single poll

INSA poll of 5 October 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
1 to 4 Oct 2021
Respondents
2,000
Method
Online
  • SPD28.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%±0
  • Grüne15.5%-0.5
  • FDP13.5%+1.5
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke4.5%-0.5
  • Others7.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Oct 2021.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Oct 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Oct 2021, FDP gains 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.1 points higher and Linke 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.1average 25.9
  • Linke -1.7average 6.2
  • FDP +1.6average 11.9
  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 22.0
  • AfD -0.6average 10.6
  • Grüne ±0average 15.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 200 seatsCDU/CSU: 150 seatsGrüne: 111 seatsFDP: 97 seatsAfD: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD200
  • CDU/CSU150
  • Grüne111
  • FDP97
  • AfD72
  • SPD + CDU/CSU350 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP408 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD383 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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