Single poll

INSA poll of 3 October 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
27 Sep 2021 to 1 Oct 2021
Respondents
1,254
Method
Telefon & Online
  • SPD28.0%+3.0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%-1.0
  • Grüne16.0%+1.0
  • FDP12.0%±0
  • AfD10.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%-1.5
  • Others8.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 20 Sep 2021.

In this poll INSA has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,254 people were surveyed from 27 Sep 2021 to 1 Oct 2021, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 20 Sep 2021, SPD gains 3.0 points, Linke loses 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.2 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.2average 25.8
  • Linke -1.3average 6.3
  • CDU/CSU -1.1average 22.1
  • AfD -0.7average 10.7
  • Grüne +0.5average 15.5
  • FDP +0.3average 11.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 192 seatsCDU/CSU: 144 seatsGrüne: 110 seatsFDP: 82 seatsAfD: 68 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD192
  • CDU/CSU144
  • Grüne110
  • FDP82
  • AfD68
  • Linke34
  • SPD + CDU/CSU336 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP384 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD370 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD342 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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