Single poll

INSA poll of 15 March 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 15 Mar 2021
Respondents
2,068
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
  • SPD17.0%±0
  • Grüne17.0%±0
  • AfD11.5%±0
  • FDP10.5%±0
  • Linke8.0%-1.0
  • Others6.5%+1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Mar 2021.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 2,068 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Mar 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Mar 2021, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 4.5 points lower and FDP 3.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Mar 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -4.5average 34.0
  • FDP +3.0average 7.5
  • Grüne -2.0average 19.0
  • AfD +1.3average 10.2
  • SPD +1.1average 15.9
  • Linke +0.5average 7.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 199 seatsSPD: 115 seatsGrüne: 114 seatsAfD: 77 seatsFDP: 71 seatsLinke: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU199
  • SPD115
  • Grüne114
  • AfD77
  • FDP71
  • Linke54
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne428 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD391 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD390 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP385 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke330 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke324 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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