Single poll

INSA poll of 5 January 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
1 to 4 Jan 2021
Respondents
2,072
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU36.0%+1.0
  • Grüne18.0%+1.5
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • AfD11.0%±0
  • FDP7.5%-0.5
  • Linke7.5%±0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2020.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,072 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Jan 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2020, Grüne gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher and FDP 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.6average 9.4
  • FDP +1.5average 6.0
  • Grüne -0.9average 18.9
  • SPD -0.9average 15.9
  • Linke -0.5average 8.0
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 36.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 239 seatsGrüne: 119 seatsSPD: 99 seatsAfD: 73 seatsFDP: 50 seatsLinke: 50 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU239
  • Grüne119
  • SPD99
  • AfD73
  • FDP50
  • Linke50
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke339 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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