INSA poll of 5 January 2021 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 4 Jan 2021
- Respondents
- 2,072
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU36.0%+1.0
- Grüne18.0%+1.5
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- AfD11.0%±0
- FDP7.5%-0.5
- Linke7.5%±0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2020.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,072 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Jan 2021, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2020, Grüne gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher and FDP 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.6average 9.4
- FDP +1.5average 6.0
- Grüne -0.9average 18.9
- SPD -0.9average 15.9
- Linke -0.5average 8.0
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 36.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU239
- Grüne119
- SPD99
- AfD73
- FDP50
- Linke50
- CDU/CSU + Grüne358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke339 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.