Single poll

INSA poll of 15 December 2020 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
11 to 14 Dec 2020
Respondents
2,002
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU36.0%+0.5
  • SPD17.0%+1.5
  • Grüne17.0%-0.5
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke7.5%±0
  • FDP7.0%-1.0
  • Others5.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Dec 2020.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 11 to 14 Dec 2020, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Dec 2020, SPD gains 1.5 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Dec 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.1average 19.1
  • SPD +1.3average 15.7
  • FDP +1.2average 5.8
  • CDU/CSU -0.6average 36.6
  • AfD +0.5average 9.5
  • Linke -0.1average 7.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 240 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 113 seatsAfD: 67 seatsLinke: 50 seatsFDP: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU240
  • SPD113
  • Grüne113
  • AfD67
  • Linke50
  • FDP47
  • CDU/CSU + SPD353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke357 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP337 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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