Single poll

INSA poll of 16 December 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
13 to 16 Dec 2019
Respondents
2,020
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
  • Grüne21.0%+0.5
  • AfD15.0%±0
  • SPD13.0%-1.0
  • Linke9.5%+1.0
  • FDP8.5%±0
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Dec 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 2,020 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Dec 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Dec 2019, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +0.9average 14.1
  • SPD -0.8average 13.8
  • Linke +0.8average 8.7
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 27.5
  • Grüne -0.4average 21.4
  • FDP +0.3average 8.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 181 seatsGrüne: 141 seatsAfD: 100 seatsSPD: 87 seatsLinke: 64 seatsFDP: 57 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU181
  • Grüne141
  • AfD100
  • SPD87
  • Linke64
  • FDP57
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke332 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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