INSA poll of 4 November 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 4 Nov 2019
- Respondents
- 2,047
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU25.5%-0.5
- Grüne21.0%-2.0
- AfD16.0%+0.5
- SPD13.5%±0
- Linke10.0%+1.0
- FDP8.0%+0.5
- Others6.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Oct 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.5%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 2,047 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Nov 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Oct 2019, Grüne loses 2.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.6 points lower and AfD 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Nov 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.6average 28.1
- AfD +2.2average 13.8
- Linke +1.9average 8.1
- Grüne -1.0average 22.0
- SPD -0.6average 14.1
- FDP +0.5average 7.5
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU171
- Grüne141
- AfD107
- SPD90
- Linke67
- FDP54
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD419 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke379 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke345 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.