INSA poll of 30 September 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 27 to 30 Sep 2019
- Respondents
- 2,058
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%+0.5
- Grüne22.0%±0
- AfD16.0%±0
- SPD13.0%-1.0
- FDP8.0%±0
- Linke8.0%±0
- Others6.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Sep 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 2,058 people were surveyed from 27 to 30 Sep 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Sep 2019, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.4average 13.6
- SPD -1.4average 14.4
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 27.6
- Grüne -1.0average 23.0
- FDP +0.7average 7.3
- Linke +0.3average 7.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU178
- Grüne148
- AfD108
- SPD88
- FDP54
- Linke54
- CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD374 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP320 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke320 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.