Single poll

INSA poll of 30 July 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
26 to 29 Jul 2019
Respondents
2,036
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-1.5
  • Grüne24.5%+2.0
  • AfD14.5%±0
  • SPD12.5%±0
  • FDP9.0%+1.0
  • Linke8.0%±0
  • Others4.5%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.5%. 2,036 people were surveyed from 26 to 29 Jul 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2019, Grüne gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.5 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.0average 12.5
  • SPD -0.9average 13.4
  • FDP +0.8average 8.2
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 27.3
  • Grüne +0.2average 24.3
  • Linke -0.1average 8.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 178 seatsGrüne: 162 seatsAfD: 96 seatsSPD: 82 seatsFDP: 59 seatsLinke: 53 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU178
  • Grüne162
  • AfD96
  • SPD82
  • FDP59
  • Linke53
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD356 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke327 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP319 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + FDP317 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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