Single poll

INSA poll of 22 July 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
19 to 22 Jul 2019
Respondents
2,081
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU28.5%+2.5
  • Grüne22.5%-0.5
  • AfD14.5%+0.5
  • SPD12.5%-1.5
  • FDP8.0%-1.0
  • Linke8.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Jul 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.5%, followed by Grüne on 22.5%. 2,081 people were surveyed from 19 to 22 Jul 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 Jul 2019, CDU/CSU gains 2.5 points, SPD loses 1.5 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.5 points lower and CDU/CSU 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.5average 25.0
  • CDU/CSU +1.8average 26.7
  • AfD +1.8average 12.7
  • SPD -0.7average 13.2
  • Linke -0.2average 8.2
  • FDP ±0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 191 seatsGrüne: 150 seatsAfD: 97 seatsSPD: 84 seatsFDP: 54 seatsLinke: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU191
  • Grüne150
  • AfD97
  • SPD84
  • FDP54
  • Linke54
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke342 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke329 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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