Single poll

INSA poll of 15 July 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
12 to 15 Jul 2019
Respondents
2,043
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • Grüne23.0%-1.0
  • SPD14.0%+0.5
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • FDP9.0%+1.0
  • Linke9.0%+0.5
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Jul 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 2,043 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Jul 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Jul 2019, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.2average 25.2
  • FDP +1.4average 7.6
  • AfD +1.0average 13.0
  • Linke +1.0average 8.0
  • SPD +0.9average 13.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 26.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 172 seatsGrüne: 152 seatsSPD: 93 seatsAfD: 93 seatsFDP: 60 seatsLinke: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU172
  • Grüne152
  • SPD93
  • AfD93
  • FDP60
  • Linke60
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne324 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD358 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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