INSA poll of 1 July 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Jun 2019 to 1 Jul 2019
- Respondents
- 2,053
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.0%+1.5
- Grüne24.0%-1.5
- AfD14.0%+0.5
- SPD13.0%+0.5
- FDP8.0%-0.5
- Linke8.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Jun 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.0%. 2,053 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2019 to 1 Jul 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Jun 2019, CDU/CSU gains 1.5 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.7average 12.3
- SPD -0.5average 13.5
- Grüne -0.4average 24.4
- CDU/CSU -0.3average 27.3
- Linke +0.2average 7.8
- FDP ±0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU181
- Grüne161
- AfD94
- SPD87
- FDP54
- Linke53
- CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD362 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.