Single poll

INSA poll of 1 April 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
28 Mar 2019 to 1 Apr 2019
Respondents
4,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.5%-1.0
  • Grüne17.5%±0
  • SPD16.5%+1.0
  • AfD13.5%±0
  • FDP10.0%+1.0
  • Linke8.5%-0.5
  • Others4.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Mar 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%. 4,000 people were surveyed from 28 Mar 2019 to 1 Apr 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 26 Mar 2019, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Apr 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP +1.1average 8.9
  • Grüne -0.8average 18.3
  • AfD +0.8average 12.7
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.0
  • SPD -0.4average 16.9
  • Linke ±0average 8.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 195 seatsGrüne: 115 seatsSPD: 109 seatsAfD: 89 seatsFDP: 66 seatsLinke: 56 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU195
  • Grüne115
  • SPD109
  • AfD89
  • FDP66
  • Linke56
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD419 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD399 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD393 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP376 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP350 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke317 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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