Single poll

INSA poll of 11 March 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
8 to 11 Mar 2019
Respondents
2,005
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.5%+1.5
  • Grüne17.5%+2.0
  • SPD15.0%-2.0
  • AfD14.5%±0
  • FDP10.0%±0
  • Linke9.0%-1.0
  • Others3.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Mar 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%. 2,005 people were surveyed from 8 to 11 Mar 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Mar 2019, Grüne gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 1.9 points lower and FDP 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Mar 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.9average 16.9
  • FDP +1.6average 8.4
  • AfD +1.5average 13.0
  • Grüne -0.5average 18.0
  • Linke +0.3average 8.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.2average 30.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 199 seatsGrüne: 114 seatsSPD: 98 seatsAfD: 95 seatsFDP: 65 seatsLinke: 59 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU199
  • Grüne114
  • SPD98
  • AfD95
  • FDP65
  • Linke59
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD411 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD408 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD392 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke323 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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