Single poll

INSA poll of 18 February 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
15 to 18 Feb 2019
Respondents
2,046
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+0.5
  • SPD18.0%+2.5
  • Grüne15.0%-3.5
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • Linke9.5%-1.0
  • FDP9.0%+0.5
  • Others4.5%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Feb 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by SPD on 18.0%. 2,046 people were surveyed from 15 to 18 Feb 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Feb 2019, Grüne loses 3.5 points, SPD gains 2.5 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 3.6 points lower and SPD 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Feb 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -3.6average 18.6
  • SPD +1.9average 16.1
  • AfD +1.1average 12.9
  • Linke +1.0average 8.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
  • FDP ±0average 9.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 198 seatsSPD: 119 seatsGrüne: 99 seatsAfD: 92 seatsLinke: 63 seatsFDP: 59 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU198
  • SPD119
  • Grüne99
  • AfD92
  • Linke63
  • FDP59
  • CDU/CSU + SPD317 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD389 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP320 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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