INSA poll of 4 February 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 4 Feb 2019
- Respondents
- 2,034
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- Grüne18.5%+0.5
- SPD14.5%-0.5
- AfD14.0%±0
- Linke10.5%+0.5
- FDP8.5%-0.5
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.5%. 2,034 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Feb 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2019, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Linke 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Feb 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +1.9average 8.6
- SPD -0.5average 15.0
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 30.4
- Grüne -0.4average 18.9
- FDP -0.4average 8.9
- AfD +0.2average 13.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU197
- Grüne121
- SPD95
- AfD92
- Linke69
- FDP56
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD384 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.