Single poll

INSA poll of 22 January 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
18 to 21 Jan 2019
Respondents
2,044
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+2.0
  • Grüne19.5%+1.5
  • SPD13.5%-1.0
  • AfD13.0%-1.5
  • FDP9.5%±0
  • Linke9.5%-1.0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jan 2019.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.5%. 2,044 people were surveyed from 18 to 21 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jan 2019, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.5 points, AfD loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.6average 15.1
  • CDU/CSU +1.2average 29.8
  • AfD -1.1average 14.1
  • FDP +1.0average 8.5
  • Grüne +0.5average 19.0
  • Linke +0.5average 9.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 204 seatsGrüne: 128 seatsSPD: 89 seatsAfD: 85 seatsFDP: 62 seatsLinke: 62 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU204
  • Grüne128
  • SPD89
  • AfD85
  • FDP62
  • Linke62
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke328 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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