INSA poll of 14 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 14 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 2,028
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
- Grüne18.0%+1.0
- SPD14.5%-0.5
- AfD14.5%-0.5
- Linke10.5%+0.5
- FDP9.5%-0.5
- Others4.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jan 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 2,028 people were surveyed from 11 to 14 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 Jan 2019, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Linke 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +1.5average 9.0
- Grüne -1.1average 19.1
- FDP +0.8average 8.7
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 29.6
- SPD -0.6average 15.1
- AfD +0.4average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU191
- Grüne118
- SPD95
- AfD95
- Linke69
- FDP62
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD404 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD404 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP371 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.