INSA poll of 8 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 7 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 2,056
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
- Grüne17.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- AfD15.0%+1.0
- FDP10.0%±0
- Linke10.0%±0
- Others3.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jan 2019.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 2,056 people were surveyed from 5 to 7 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jan 2019, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.9 points lower and FDP 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.9average 18.9
- FDP +1.7average 8.3
- Linke +1.0average 9.0
- AfD +0.9average 14.1
- SPD -0.3average 15.3
- CDU/CSU ±0average 30.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU195
- Grüne110
- SPD98
- AfD97
- FDP65
- Linke65
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD403 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD390 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.