INSA poll of 4 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 3 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 1,026
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%±0
- Grüne18.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- AfD14.0%-1.0
- FDP10.0%+1.0
- Linke10.0%+1.0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2018.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,026 people were surveyed from 2 to 3 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Dec 2018, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has FDP 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.6average 8.4
- Grüne -1.2average 19.2
- Linke +1.1average 8.9
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 29.6
- AfD -0.2average 14.2
- SPD -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU190
- Grüne118
- SPD98
- AfD92
- FDP66
- Linke66
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD406 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.